Solar Payback Estimate: How Solar Payback Map Calculates It Without Selling Leads
The full formula, every assumption, and why we would rather under-promise. We walk through generation, rates, install cost, and policy.
Independent solar math
Where solar actually pays off, and where it does not.
We estimate residential solar payback with public U.S. data, conservative assumptions, and no lead-sales incentive. The point is not to make solar look good. The point is to make the decision clearer.
Worth-It Score preview
Full tableIllustrative state-level dataset
| 95 | Hawaii Program capped | 5-8 yrs payback range |
|---|---|---|
| 90 | Massachusetts Retail net metering | 7-10 yrs payback range |
| 84 | New York Retail net metering | 7-11 yrs payback range |
| 83 | Connecticut Buyback tariff | 7-11 yrs payback range |
| 82 | California NEM 3.0 | 8-12 yrs payback range |
Worth-It Score
A conservative signal, not a quote.
The score blends production, local electricity value, installed cost, incentives, and export-credit policy into one comparable signal.
Payback as a range
Single numbers pretend the roof, shade, financing, and future rates are knowable. We publish a band.
Policy-aware
Retail net metering, net billing, and reduced export credits are treated as first-order inputs.
No lead funnel
Solar Payback Map does not collect your phone number or sell installer leads, so the model can say no.
Dataset preview
Best and worst both matter.
| 1 | HawaiiHI | 95 - Exceptional | 5-8 yrs | 42.3c/kWh | Program capped | $78k | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MassachusettsMA | 90 - Exceptional | 7-10 yrs | 30.6c/kWh | Retail net metering | $54k | |
| 3 | New YorkNY | 84 - Strong | 7-11 yrs | 25.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $51k | |
| 4 | ConnecticutCT | 83 - Strong | 7-11 yrs | 29.1c/kWh | Buyback tariff | $50k | |
| 5 | CaliforniaCA | 82 - Strong | 8-12 yrs | 31.8c/kWh | NEM 3.0 | $49k | |
| 6 | New JerseyNJ | 82 - Strong | 7-11 yrs | 22.1c/kWh | Retail net metering | $48k | |
| 7 | Rhode IslandRI | 80 - Strong | 8-12 yrs | 28.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $51k | |
| 8 | ArizonaAZ | 79 - Strong | 8-12 yrs | 15.2c/kWh | Net billing | $44k | |
| 9 | New HampshireNH | 76 - Strong | 9-13 yrs | 25.2c/kWh | Retail net metering | $41k | |
| 10 | FloridaFL | 76 - Strong | 9-13 yrs | 13.9c/kWh | Retail net metering | $32k | |
| 11 | New MexicoNM | 73 - Strong | 9-13 yrs | 14.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $43k | |
| 12 | MarylandMD | 72 - Strong | 9-13 yrs | 15.1c/kWh | Retail net metering + SREC | $36k | |
| 13 | ColoradoCO | 72 - Strong | 9-13 yrs | 14.2c/kWh | Retail net metering | $37k | |
| 14 | NevadaNV | 72 - Strong | 8-12 yrs | 12.3c/kWh | Retail net metering | $36k | |
| 15 | MaineME | 71 - Moderate | 8-12 yrs | 24.6c/kWh | Retail net metering | $38k | |
| 16 | PennsylvaniaPA | 71 - Moderate | 9-13 yrs | 18.1c/kWh | Retail net metering | $29k | |
| 17 | North CarolinaNC | 71 - Moderate | 10-14 yrs | 12.3c/kWh | Retail net metering | $24k | |
| 18 | VermontVT | 70 - Moderate | 9-13 yrs | 23.8c/kWh | Net metering (group) | $38k | |
| 19 | Washington DCDC | 69 - Moderate | 9-13 yrs | 16.3c/kWh | Retail net metering + SREC | $44k | |
| 20 | DelawareDE | 68 - Moderate | 10-14 yrs | 17.3c/kWh | Retail net metering | $34k | |
| 21 | MichiganMI | 68 - Moderate | 9-13 yrs | 17.3c/kWh | Retail net metering | $28k | |
| 22 | TexasTX | 68 - Moderate | 10-14 yrs | 14.9c/kWh | Utility dependent | $34k | |
| 23 | WisconsinWI | 66 - Moderate | 9-14 yrs | 17.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $29k | |
| 24 | GeorgiaGA | 64 - Moderate | 10-15 yrs | 13.2c/kWh | Retail net metering | $23k | |
| 25 | IllinoisIL | 63 - Moderate | 10-14 yrs | 14.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $24k | |
| 26 | OhioOH | 63 - Moderate | 10-14 yrs | 14.0c/kWh | Retail net metering | $21k | |
| 27 | VirginiaVA | 63 - Moderate | 11-15 yrs | 13.0c/kWh | Retail net metering | $21k | |
| 28 | MinnesotaMN | 62 - Moderate | 10-14 yrs | 14.2c/kWh | Retail net metering | $22k | |
| 29 | South CarolinaSC | 61 - Moderate | 9-14 yrs | 13.9c/kWh | Retail net metering | $30k | |
| 30 | IndianaIN | 57 - Moderate | 11-15 yrs | 14.2c/kWh | Net billing (surplus) | $18k | |
| 31 | AlaskaAK | 56 - Moderate | 11-15 yrs | 24.8c/kWh | Retail net metering | $27k | |
| 32 | KansasKS | 56 - Moderate | 11-15 yrs | 12.1c/kWh | Retail net metering | $24k | |
| 33 | UtahUT | 55 - Moderate | 11-15 yrs | 10.4c/kWh | Net billing | $13k | |
| 34 | IowaIA | 55 - Moderate | 11-15 yrs | 13.3c/kWh | Retail net metering | $22k | |
| 35 | MissouriMO | 52 - Weak | 12-16 yrs | 13.1c/kWh | Retail net metering | $19k | |
| 36 | OregonOR | 50 - Weak | 13-17 yrs | 11.3c/kWh | Retail net metering | $10k | |
| 37 | MontanaMT | 48 - Weak | 13-17 yrs | 11.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $17k | |
| 38 | NebraskaNE | 46 - Weak | 14-18 yrs | 11.2c/kWh | Varies by public utility | $9k | |
| 39 | ArkansasAR | 46 - Weak | 13-18 yrs | 10.5c/kWh | Retail net metering | $15k | |
| 40 | South DakotaSD | 45 - Weak | 14-18 yrs | 11.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $20k | |
| 41 | LouisianaLA | 44 - Poor | 14-18 yrs | 10.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $13k | |
| 42 | OklahomaOK | 44 - Poor | 14-18 yrs | 10.4c/kWh | Net billing (utility) | $14k | |
| 43 | KentuckyKY | 43 - Poor | 15-20 yrs | 10.4c/kWh | Net metering (capacity cap) | $11k | |
| 44 | IdahoID | 43 - Poor | 15-20 yrs | 10.3c/kWh | Retail net metering | $11k | |
| 45 | West VirginiaWV | 42 - Poor | 15-20 yrs | 12.0c/kWh | Retail net metering | $11k | |
| 46 | North DakotaND | 41 - Poor | 16-22 yrs | 10.1c/kWh | Retail net metering | $8k | |
| 47 | WashingtonWA | 38 - Poor | 17-24 yrs | 10.4c/kWh | Retail net metering | $9k | |
| 48 | AlabamaAL | 37 - Poor | 14-18 yrs | 13.4c/kWh | Avoided cost buyback | $11k | |
| 49 | WyomingWY | 36 - Poor | 16-22 yrs | 10.1c/kWh | Retail net metering | $7k | |
| 50 | TennesseeTN | 35 - Poor | 18-24 yrs | 11.1c/kWh | TVA Generation Partners | $5k | |
| 51 | MississippiMS | 33 - Poor | 16-22 yrs | 11.3c/kWh | Avoided cost buyback | $6k |
Research paths
Move from score to evidence.
Use the article hub, topic index, editorial policy, and content manifest to inspect the assumptions behind the solar payback model.
Latest articles
Recent solar payback research.
Fresh articles enter the sitemap, RSS feed, JSON feed, and topic hubs after their scheduled publication time.
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